Sep 19, 2021

When you say "no evidence", what sort of evidence do you expect? The reason we generally run trials for many years is to gather evidence.

There was "no evidence" for the vaccines causing Myocarditis when they were rolled out. Now there's strong evidence and the concerns are growing. This trial reported Myocarditis rates at 1:1000 in a group with median age 33:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.13.21262182v...

This is three times higher than what the FDA estimated for the highest risk group (males aged 16-17), based on VAERS data:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

As for neurodegeneration, there is a concern that Codon-optimization[2] used for mRNA vaccines[3] can trigger it. It's simply not possible to gather evidence of that in the current approval timeframe, we just assume that the risk outweighs the benefit, come hell and high water. That may be a reasonable assumption for at-risk groups, but not for everyone.

[2] https://blog.addgene.org/to-codon-optimize-or-not-that-is-th...

[3] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34358150/

Sep 15, 2021

No need to call the CDC, they have already researched the rate of adverse cardiac events after vaccination and you can find their results here.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Sep 14, 2021

I'm not familiar with "patriots.win” but the table image linked above is an accurate excerpt from this CDC presentation. The mRNA vaccines have caused a higher than expected rate of adverse cardiac events in young males. I encourage everyone to read the whole file for context.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Sep 14, 2021

The CDC saw roughly 1300 cases of myocarditis or myopericarditis reported in mRNA vaccine recipients under 29 years old, after administering 52 million doses to that same age group, a minuscule risk and one much lower than that presented by COVID-19. [1]

And even then, in those cases, the vast majority resolve on their own with minimal medical intervention. [2]

But hey, have a link to the CDC source of that presentation so you don’t have to go to that .win site anymore to find your sources. They’re pretty bad at sourcing information over there [3]

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7027e2.htm

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8321962/

[3] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Sep 12, 2021

Myocarditis is not a "minor and transient" complication. While it is not immediately life-threatening, especially when detected early, it can have a significant effect on mortality risk later on.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5951175/

It also often goes undetected, so the VAERS data should serve as a lower bound.

> pulling from VAERS, which is problematic for a number of reasons

The FDA also uses data from VAERS for its assessment:

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Sep 12, 2021

> this "study" was searching for myocarditis symptoms in the VAERS database and extrapolating from there

It's fair to be critical of this study. However it's important to be aware that the CDC is conducting their own investigation of myocarditis and myopericarditis associated with vaccination. The CDC reviews VAERS reports and then actively investigates them, keeping a tally of the cases that meet the CDC's own stringent criteria.

According to the CDC (as of August 18th), for males age 16-17 the reporting rate of myopericarditis after 2 doses of Pfizer is 71.5 per 1 million doses administered (0.0071%). For males aged 18-24 the reporting rate after 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna is ~37 per 1 million doses (0.0037%) [1]. They note that for males the observed cases exceed the expected cases by a significant amount in age groups through 49 years.

> myocarditis occurs at a rate of about 200/million in general

For accurate scientific discussion it's important to stratify by age. Following the reference chain from your citation, the important nuance is that "more than one-half of all cases [of myocarditis in the pediatric population] are seen in the first year of life" [2]. Consequently the incident rate you've cited isn't quite as representative as you suggest. This fact is in alignment with the CDC mentioning that the observed cases of vaccine associated myocarditis are greater than expected, particularly for male teenagers.

> It's frankly irresponsible journalism to have a headline like this

I disagree - the title accurately reflects available evidence and official data from government sources.

> that's going to cause people to run scared

People shouldn't be scared by this data. The vast majority of young adults recover quickly from clinical and subclinical myocarditis [1], although the long-term effects aren't well established. It's important to note that viral infection can also cause myocarditis, so this phenomenon isn't just a knock against vaccination. The takeaway is that these findings are an important factor to consider when considering vaccination strategies for children and teenagers - we should proceed with an abundance of caution, but not fear.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

[2] The Diagnostic and Clinical Approach to Pediatric Myocarditis: A Review of the Current Literature https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6352488/

Sep 09, 2021

The numbers get REALY bad when you look at vaccinating kids.

486 kids dead from covid [0] over almost 2 years. For reference, over 24,000 kids died during that same period from various accidents. 6,488 kids committed suicide in 2019 alone [1] and those rates have supposedly gone up since, so at least 13,000 kids killed themselves during this pandemic.

There have been at least 250 myocarditis/myopericarditis VAERS complaints (that's inflammation of the heart or heart sack) in kids [2]. When accounting for the much lower child vaccination rates, that's very bad. They were looking at 2.5k reports at that time, but they are now up to 5-6k myocarditis reports now (and kids are being vaccinated at an increasing rate).

Normal VAERS reporting rates are estimated to be around 1% of all people with side effects[3] if for no other reason than people just don't know it exists. Despite this, there have been over 650,000 reports including 14,000 deaths, 18,000 permanently disabled, and 76,000 hospital visits [4]. If the VAERS statistics hold true as they have historically, there are more like 60,000,000 people who actually suffered side effects.

[0] https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional-COVID-19-Deaths-Focus-...

[1] https://www.nimh.nih.gov/health/statistics/suicide

[2] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

[3] https://digital.ahrq.gov/ahrq-funded-projects/electronic-sup...

[4] https://www.openvaers.com/covid-data

Sep 03, 2021

CDC slide #7 reports 20 times higher myopericarditis than baseline for 18-24 year old males, https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Aug 2021 study from Yale, John Hopkins, Stanford, UCSF and others, https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/ea...

> 63 patients with a mean age of 15.6 years were included. 92% were male. All had received an mRNA vaccine and, except for one, presented following the 2nd dose. Four patients had significant dysrhythmia. 14% had mild left ventricular dysfunction on echocardiography which resolved on discharge. 88% met the diagnostic cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) Lake Louise criteria for myocarditis.

Sep 01, 2021

According to the CDC (as of August 18th) there are at least 742 cases of myocarditis and myopericarditis associated with vaccination, potentially upwards of ~1,300 [1].

For males age 16-17 the reporting rate of myopericarditis after 2 doses of Pfizer is 71.5 per 1 million doses administered (0.0071%) [1].

For males aged 18-24 the reporting rate after 2 doses of Pfizer or Moderna is ~37 per 1 million doses (0.0037%).

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Sep 01, 2021

> the amount of people suffering myocarditis and other vaccine complications is in the double-digits

This is not true, according to the CDC (as of August 18th) there at least 742 cases of myocarditis and myopericarditis associated with vaccination, potentially upwards of ~1,300 [1].

For males age 16-17 the reporting rate of myopericarditis after 2 doses of Pfizer is 71.5 per 1 million doses administered (0.0071%) [1].

Compared to natural infection, vaccination is likely still a favorable tradeoff for most people. However the tradeoffs are highly dependent on age, health, and gender. Stratifying by these factors is essential for any scientifically accurate discussion of risks.

[1] https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-...

Sep 01, 2021

> Considerably greater risk of myocarditis and other heart issues from infection than the vaccine.

Citing your source:

2.7 events per 100,000 persons (vaccinated)

11.0 events per 100,000 persons (SarS-COV2 positive)

This already doesn't look that great, considering that the risk of a PCR-confirmed infection is not 100%. More importantly, it doesn't take into account age.

The age group at highest risk from Myocarditis following vaccination is 16-17 year-old males, latest numbers from the CDC[1]:

5.1/71.5 events* per 100,000 first/second Pfizer doses administered (within 7 days)

This has a strong bias towards the second dose, it's not clear yet how booster shots fare here, which may need to be administered at 5 months intervals.

It stands to reason that the Myocarditis risk from COVID infection in that age group should also be higher, but it's not clear whether the benefit outweighs the risk in that age/sex group, considering that both infection count and side-effect cases tend to be under-reported.

*) It's not clear whether that number includes the cases "under investigation". If so, this would further raise the risk by up to 66%.

[1]: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-... (Page 13)