Apr 27, 2020


Apr 27, 2020

Here are the conditions for lifting the CA stay at home orders: https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...

It basically comes down to being able to contain disease spread by contact tracing and testing.

Apr 27, 2020

> Blanket lockdown has to end.

What's different now vs before the lockdown started regarding flattening the curve? R0 is a little under 1 right now, but what will it be when most things reopen?

The goal of the lockdown is to keep R0 under 1 until we have measures in place to permanently mitigate the spread [1]. This means lots of testing and contact tracing, which is not even possible right now with case numbers being as big as they are.

Reopening right now would just get us back to #flattenthecurve in a matter of 4 weeks.

> There is no risk posed to the majority of the population from covid-19

There is risk to everybody, it's just lower for some. There's enough evidence of permanent damage inflicted on organs and other gnarly details that I (34M) will be absolutely careful not to get this disease. [2]

[1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...

[2] https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/more-bad-news-on-the...

Apr 14, 2020

This entire plan is based on models that do not align with what we are seeing. The graph on slide two[1] of the official CA govt plan shows hospitalizations With Intervention rising exponentially, exceeding our hospital capacity in early June. The actual new infection data shows that the rate of new infections has been decreasing since at least 4/4 [2], meaning that the graph of active hospitalizations should be a bell curve with a maximum value of ~10,000 on ~4/20.

The mismatch between their models and the observed data does not engender confidence.

[1] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California...

[2] https://covid-19.direct/state/CA