Mar 22, 2020

Wow really. Do you have a source for that?

Because if true, combine that with the facts that

- 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1]

- median age of deaths is 80 years old [2]

Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one.



Mar 21, 2020

I think we should present the facts we have. Your handwaving this away with unfactual info is worse imo.

> There are still lots of people under 50 getting it.

Getting it perhaps, but only 0.8% of deaths in Italy were under 50. [1]


Mar 21, 2020

The sample is 70+ year old, but the conclusion is not that people in that age range are the most at risk, it's that if you have a pre-existing condition, you are at risk.

I don't think anyone is trying to say this is an overreaction. On the contrary, if you or any of your loved ones have a condition, you should be extra careful.

At the end of the report linked by other commenters ( it also says that the few <40yo people who died also had existing preconditions.

Mar 21, 2020

More than 75% had high blood pressure, about 35% had diabetes and a third suffered from heart disease.

The original study in Italian:

Translation from Google below. I can't paste a table, but if you scroll down you can see the full list. Looks like primarily heart conditions, hypertension, recent history of cancer, and diabetes.

Mar 21, 2020

See Table 1 in the original study:

  Ipertensione arteriosa (high blood pressure) 76.1%
  Diabete mellito (diabetes) 35.5%
  Cardiopatia ischemica (heart disease) 33%
  Fibrillazione atriale (atrial fibrillation) 24.5%
  Cancro attivo negli ultimi 5 anni (cancer in past 5 years) 20.3%
  Insufficienza renale cronica (renal failure) 18%
  BPCO (COPD) 13.2%
  Ictus (stroke) 9.6%
  Demenza (dementia) 6.8%
  Epatopatia cronica (chronic liver disease) 3.1%
Note that the most of the people in this study were 70+ years old, and I have no idea what the typical prevalence of these diseases is among 70+ year old Italians.

Mar 21, 2020

> lethal to those at the medical fringes (eg. 99% of cases in Italy have existing health problems

The most common existing health problems from the study[0]:

* Diabetes - 29% of the US population affected

* Hypertension - 45% of the US population affected

Hardly "fringe".


Mar 20, 2020

It is terrifying how fast reasonable people have jumped on board with China-level lockdown policies that will decimate life-as-we-know-it after they end.

I've been reading every whitepaper and journal publication I can find on this disease.

The picture that I'm seeing is that this disease is both more infectious (higher R0) and less deadly than previously thought.

In light of those facts I am fairly convinced the lockdowns and resulting economic impacts will be worse than just isolating the most vulnerable and letting the rest of the population go about their business. (Suggests the R0 is much higher and IFR much lower than reported) (shows that the people dying are very old and very sick already. Also given the fact that part of the population is so impacted strongly suggests the disease is much more widespread)

Also, all of the celebrities, politicians and athletes that are testing positive are proof, in my opinion, of how wide this has gone.

Mar 19, 2020

Some numbers from Italy:

- 48.5% of people who died had three or more other illnesses

- 25.6% of people who died had two other illnesses

- 25.1% of people who died had one other illness

- Overall, 99.2% of people who died had at least one other illness

- Average age of those that died was 79.5

Of the 2500 or so people that have died:

- only 17 people were under 50

- only 5 people were under 40 and all 5 had an existing serious illness