Nov 26, 2019

Most people have to "only" worry about 40 years of accumulating wealth (say, ages 25-65), and then 20 years of decumulation after retirement (65-85, on average).

And the DAX has generally given decent results since 1955:


Meta: interesting paper called "The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015":


Nov 03, 2019

If by more and more money you mean due to inflation, then yes. Otherwise, no, pretty much all returns to real estate are in the form of rent and thus if you are using it yourself, you aren't going to get a lot more back for on average after adjusting for inflation [0, 1].

[0 The rate of return on everything, 1870-2015]:

[1 HN discussion of it]:

Aug 27, 2019

> but not many other investment in the same risk category do it.

Only real estate.

HN Discussion:

Jun 20, 2019

> I assume you mean adjusted for inflation here? Even then that hasn't been true.

I used the numbers from here:

Specifically in section IIIA

"The stylized fact from the studies on long-run housing capital appreciation is that over long horizons, house prices only grow a little faster than the consumer price index"

> The problem with renting is that you're still paying the mortgage, only in the renting case you're also paying the middleman who then pays the mortgage. This is why rent per month is higher than mortgage per month for the same house. So the returns from that downpayment you instead invested need to make up for the monthly loss in rent, plus the lack of an asset at the end of the process.

Right, but the down payment ends up compounding to greater than the value of the entire home at the end of the 30 years and the difference is significant enough to cover (rent - mortgage)

> This comparison isn't entirely fair because the rental unit also included maintenance and groundskeeping. In my house I have to do all that work myself or hire someone. However, in the rental unit I had to pay for the utilities. This is a problem because the landlord will never replace something like an AC unit or a refrigerator with anything but the absolute cheapest and most expensive to run model. In my house when I replace it I have the option of buying the high efficiency model and enjoying the cost savings over the life of the unit. Plus when something breaks in my home I just fix it or go out immediately and hire someone to fix it. In the apartment you have to contact the landlord who then sits on it for two weeks before contacting his maintenance guy who only comes by once every couple of weeks to look at it and then order the part so maybe he can fix it on his next visit. In the meantime I'm freezing my ass off with no heat for all of January. I don't miss renting at all.

I completely agree. The thing I actually really wanted to buy a house because I want a grand piano and to not have to worry about moving it. Sadly at least from my own calculations I just can't justify it.